McShay vs Kiper : Who won?

April 25, 2013

For the last two months all we’ve been hearing is Todd McShay’s and Mel Kiper Jr.’s draft projections. It’s like that every year around this time, but I realized we never hear the results. All the debates and opinions thrown around, and then we completely forget about them. Not anymore, here are the results as a gist of the 1st round of the 2013 NFL Draft, along with final scores for each guy.

Top 10 picks:

| Pick | Team | McShay | Kiper | Actual |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | 
1|Kansas City|<b>Eric Fisher (OT - Central Michigan)</b>|<b>Eric Fisher (OT - Central Michigan)</b>|Eric Fisher (OT - Central Michigan)
2|Jacksonville|Dion Jordan (DE - Oregon)|<b>Luke Joeckel (OT - Texas A&M)</b>|Luke Joeckel (OT - Texas A&M)
3|Oakland|Sharrif Floyd (DT - Florida)|Sharrif Floyd (DT - Florida)|Dion Jordan (DE - Oregon)
4|Philadelphia|<b>Lane Johnson (OT - Oklahoma)</b>|<b>Lane Johnson (OT - Oklahoma)</b>|Lane Johnson (OT - Oklahoma)
5|Detroit|<b>Ezekiel Ansah (DE - BYU)</b>|<b>Ezekiel Ansah (DE - BYU)</b>|Ezekiel Ansah (DE - BYU)
6|Cleveland|Geno Smith (QB - WVU)|Dee Milliner (CB - Alabama)|Barkevious Mingo (DE - LSU)
7|Arizona|<b>Jonathan Cooper (G - UNC)</b>|Dion Jordan (DE - Oregon)|Jonathan Cooper (G - UNC)
8|Buffalo|Ryan Nassib (QB - Syracuse)|Jonathan Cooper (G - UNC)|Tavon Austin (WR - WVU)
9|New York Jets|Tyler Eifert (TE - Notre Dame)|Barkevious Mingo (DE - LSU)|Dee Milliner (CB - Alabama)
10|Tennessee|Dee Milliner (CB - Alabama)|Sheldon Richardson (DT - Missouri)|Chance Warmack (G - Alabama)

So here are the final scores, purely for reference:

Mel Kiper Jr. : 8/32 (25%)

Todd McShay : 7/32 (22%)

Note: Obviously during the draft teams trade picks; this is not accounted for in the projections. However, the projected picks should be recognized. For example, St. Louis was scheduled to have the 16th overall pick, but they traded with Buffalo to move that up to the 8th pick. They ended up picking Tavon Austin then, who Todd McShay projected they would pick when their pick came around. Taking these situations into account here are the adjusted scores for the two “experts” in the first round; adjusted players in parentheses:

Mel Kiper Jr. : 9/32 (28%) (Eric Reid)

Todd McShay : 10/32 (31%) (Tavon Austin, Eric Reid, Desmond Trufant)